As the old saying goes, “all good things come to an end.” And, as much as I have enjoyed spending time here on Sanity and as much as I treasure the friendships that I have made here, my ability to spend much time on Sanity will come to an end with the end of this week.
techstock2000 @ October 18, 2008
For months, the community of Applelot (at the Investor Village Apple Sanity stock board), linked with the Mac Observer’s finance board, have been calculating the number of iPhones manufactured. They have done that work by capturing and tracking the unique IMEI numbers (similar to serial numbers) that are printed on every iPhone.
The work of the Applelot community shows that plenty of iPhones have now been manufactured for Apple to have met its self-imposed goal of 10 million iPhones sold in 2008, and the general press is picking up the story. For example, the following was posted on Wired on October 7, 2008.
Apple May Already Have Sold 10 Million iPhone 3Gs
We never really know how many of anything Apple has sold until we are told, usually by Steve Jobs as the warm up to a keynote speech. But that doesn’t stop people guessing. And some guesses have had a little more research than others.
The folks at Mac Observer teamed up with the IV AAPL Sanity Board to count the IMEI numbers of iPhones (the IMEI is a unique cellphone hardware ID number). These they put together in a spreadsheet. According to the numbers, Apple has sold almost 10 million iPhone 3Gs. That’s the new one, which has been on sale for just under three months. Apple stated that it planned to sell ten million iPhones of all kinds by the end of 2008. It looks like it hit that goal early.
Those numbers aren’t quite as accurate as we might think, though. The numbers within the IMEI can be used to track batches and numbers of phones manufactured, but not the number sold. There could be inventory floating around in storerooms and repair shops. But the fact that this many have been made means that, according to financial blog Seeking Alpha, there are at least seven million 3G iPhones in the hands of users.
For the record, the latest iPhone listed on the spreadsheet is no 9,190,680, an 8GB black model which was sold three days ago on October 4th.
Phone Sales Drastically Surpass Q4 Consensus; Apple Reaches 10m Goal [Seeking Alpha via Fortune]
Topic: Calling ALL 3G iPhone OWNERS! [Mac Observer Forums]
The Spreadsheet [Google Docs]
techstock2000 @ October 7, 2008
On September 18, 2008, maverick_rich posted the following:
Apple is selling off because of funds needing access to cash.
However, the markets crashing may not prove to be a good time to invest this time around. We have a huge variable here not seen in the past: credit contraction. This is a huge sum of money being taken away from the economy. The Bond market is extremely huge relative to the stock market. The problem we have is in the bond market side and there is no way that the stock market or the economy is going to survive a bond market contraction. The bond market can swallow the entire stock market and still be starved for more. If you are looking what the bond market is saying, it is predicting a nasty contraction of the economy.
More on page 283
techstock2000 @ September 18, 2008
On September 16, 2008, Centex posted the following:
Capitulation
Some of you have been praying for capitulation.
Congratulations! Now you have it. I’m out.
Enjoyed the ride, hated the landing. Made some friends here, met some wonderful people. Thank you for enriching my life.
I still think AAPL is a great company, but no company is going to withstand the current turbulence unscathed.
techstock2000 @ September 16, 2008
On September 16, 2008, maverick_rich posted the following:
Guys… it’s been fun… I’m taking a break for the next month… Too depressing otherwise…
I’ll leave what options I have left for a hail marry rebound. But, I’m already figured the remaining money is a sunk cost and gone.
Right now, I’m preparing myself and my family for what could be a repeat of the 1930s. The Fed, SEC, have played mathematical experiments with what is the Modern Financial System. The models don’t work and the theory is wrong.
More on page 279
techstock2000 @ September 16, 2008
