As we approach WWDC and (we think) the release of the next-generation iPhone, I compared this year’s pre-WWDC period and last year’s pre-WWDC period.  There are interesting similarities and differences.

 

I checked the stock charts from last year during the run up going into the WWDC event and found the price of Apple stock went up every day until a trap that was set and sprung on May 22nd, which turned the stock price down a total of 3 dollars over 3 days.  This was followed by a rising stock price until another trap on the 1st of June for a 3 dollar one day drop only to resume the run up into WWDC.

I am not saying history will repeat. 

 

This year things are different. 

 

Apple stock was at all time highs last year this time.  This year Apple stock has yet to hit all time highs for the run up.

 

We have the uptick rule that keeps people leaving their money in money market accounts, afraid to trade. 

 

 

We also have a far larger launch.  Last year it was limited to the US.  This year so far we are at what 53 countries and the launch is growing larger almost every day. 

 

Apple will also show off the 2.0 software with many applications already written for businesses and for retail customers as Apple starts a new business selling software for the iPhone and iPod Touches.  This is creating a large amount of press on its own as some of the software is completed and companies do press releases on the software they wrote only adding to the halo effect.

 

The press related to the launch of the iPhone last year in the US was up to over 20,000 article a day written on the net if my rusty memory serves me right.  I wonder how many articles a day will be written for a launch that is 53 times or more larger and includes business and consumer software? 

 

The halo effect of this iPhone 2.0 launch will be even larger than it was last year for the iPhone as people in 53 countries are going to get a chance to look at and purchase an Apple product which for many will be their first Apple product they ever owned.  As we know when people purchase the iPhone as their first Apple product some go out and buy other Apple products only adding to the revenues.

 

All I can say is I believe the launch of the iPhone was huge for Apple but the launch this year is far larger.

 

Just my opinion.