New Deagol model of AAPL
Quarterly Forecasts, Earnings & Guidance
On May 16, 2008, Deagol posted the latest update to his model of Apple’s business. Historically, this model has been substantially more accurate than any of the professional analysts that follow Apple.
Revised iPhone model:
- F08 and F09 estimated iPhone unit sales raised to 9.4M and 15.9M (were 9.0M and 12.4M) respectively.
- F09 estimated revenue rises to $44.80B (was $44.15B) and EPS to $7.55 (was $7.38).
- One year target raised to $222 (was $215).
- Recommendation: BUY (strong buy below $173, neutral above $197).
3mo ending on Jun-2008:
Apple gd: $7.20b rev, $1.00 eps
Analysts: $7.36b rev, $1.08 EPS
My estmt: $7.44b rev, $1.16 EPS
9.8m iPods, 2.50m Macs
12mo ending on Sep-2009:
Analysts: $39.26b rev, $6.32 eps
My estmt: $44.80b rev, $7.55 eps
Valuation (25 x fwd EPS):
Jun-2008 (fair value): $173, - 8% dnside (Jun-2009 eps $6.92)
Mar-2009 (1yr target): $222, +18% upside (Mar-2010 eps $8.89)
Analysts mean target : $208, +11% upside
techstock2000 @ May 17, 2008
Deagol’s estimate will pps to 226 instantly, fwiw!
However technically speaking , AAPL needs to test decisively the 20DMA very soon so that SS and RSI fall in place for further PPS upwards momentum! Historically that is the case with AAPL!
Let us see!
Munster says 45 MILLION iPHONES.
What does that bring to the equation?
If Apple launches a video conferencing iPhone in June, all these numbers will seem insignificant to the but rate that will occur.
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