New Deagol Model of AAPL

Quarterly Forecasts, Earnings & Guidance

On September 15, 2008, Deagol posted the latest update to his model of Apple’s business. Historically, this model has been substantially more accurate than any of the professional analysts that follow Apple.

Long term recommendation:

STRONG BUY below $186
buy from $186 to $213
neutral from $213 to $245
sell above $245

Best wishes to everyone, and stay safe.

3mo ending on Sep-2008:
Apple gd: $7.80b rev, $1.00 eps
Analysts: $8.07b rev, $1.11 eps
My estmt: $8.37b rev, $1.28 eps
2.9m Macs, 7m iPhones, 11m iPods

12mo ending on Sep-2009:
Analysts: $40.38b rev, $6.05 eps
My estmt: $45.48b rev, $7.44 eps

Valuation (25 x fwd eps):
Sep-2008 (fair value): $186, +25% upside (Sep-2009 eps $7.44)
Jun-2009 (1yr target): $245, +64% upside (Jun-2010 eps $9.79)
Analysts mean target : $208, +40% upside

http://stashbox.org/browse.php?q=user%3Adeagol+aapl

techstock2000 @ September 15, 2008