Comments for Applelot http://applelot.org The Best of the Sane AAPL Stock Board Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:42:25 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 Comment on New Deagol Model of AAPL by Treehouse http://applelot.org/2008/08/15/new-deagol-model-of-aapl-3/#comment-601 Treehouse Sun, 17 Aug 2008 00:23:38 +0000 http://applelot.org/?p=170#comment-601 Saving this page on main booksmarks bar and looking forward to more analysis. Saving this page on main booksmarks bar and looking forward to more analysis.

]]> Comment on New Deagol Model of AAPL by Centex http://applelot.org/2008/08/15/new-deagol-model-of-aapl-3/#comment-600 Centex Sat, 16 Aug 2008 17:52:26 +0000 http://applelot.org/?p=170#comment-600 Your estimates: thank you for all that work! You said, "Once again I keep on raising iPhone estimates as more data comes through, now at 25.4 and 32.4 million units for Fiscal 2009 and 2010, respectively. " Have you lowered your iPod figures any? Or do you think that the iPhone sales will not impact the Touch sales at all? Your estimates: thank you for all that work!

You said, “Once again I keep on raising iPhone estimates as more data comes through, now at 25.4 and 32.4 million units for Fiscal 2009 and 2010, respectively. ”

Have you lowered your iPod figures any? Or do you think that the iPhone sales will not impact the Touch sales at all?

]]> Comment on Open letter to SEC Chairman Christopher Cox by Cramer on Naked Shorting « iPhonAsia 到达中国和亚洲 http://applelot.org/2008/07/19/open-letter-to-sec-chairman-christopher-cox/#comment-598 Cramer on Naked Shorting « iPhonAsia 到达中国和亚洲 Thu, 14 Aug 2008 04:35:58 +0000 http://applelot.org/?p=123#comment-598 [...] iPhonAsia Letter to SEC > HERE [...] ... MORE ... iPhonAsia Letter to SEC > HERE ... MORE ...

]]> Comment on Why does Apple need $20 billion? by Partners in Grime http://applelot.org/2008/08/11/why-does-apple-need-20-billion/#comment-596 Partners in Grime Thu, 14 Aug 2008 01:29:27 +0000 http://applelot.org/?p=163#comment-596 Apple to build their own roads? Sounds great! Apple to build their own roads? Sounds great!

]]> Comment on Why does Apple need $20 billion? by John http://applelot.org/2008/08/11/why-does-apple-need-20-billion/#comment-595 John Tue, 12 Aug 2008 00:08:03 +0000 http://applelot.org/?p=163#comment-595 It is a puzzle. They could buy Adobe with a mix of cash and stock as many have suggested. That would be appealing to users but it would be a nightmare to manage and it may not make much business sense. At a lower level the cash was useful as support for the stock price. For a long time AAPL was valued at about the cash per share price. It could still be useful as a defense against the loss of a partner. Suppose a strategically critical partner were about to fall into unfriendly hands. Apple would have the cash to outbid them. There are probably other possible businesses as mentioned in the article that have a high barrier to entry. Once you pay the ante though there are few other competitors. It is a puzzle. They could buy Adobe with a mix of cash and stock as many have suggested. That would be appealing to users but it would be a nightmare to manage and it may not make much business sense.

At a lower level the cash was useful as support for the stock price. For a long time AAPL was valued at about the cash per share price.

It could still be useful as a defense against the loss of a partner. Suppose a strategically critical partner were about to fall into unfriendly hands. Apple would have the cash to outbid them.

There are probably other possible businesses as mentioned in the article that have a high barrier to entry. Once you pay the ante though there are few other competitors.

]]> Comment on Why does Apple need $20 billion? by rjack http://applelot.org/2008/08/11/why-does-apple-need-20-billion/#comment-594 rjack Mon, 11 Aug 2008 18:12:09 +0000 http://applelot.org/?p=163#comment-594 I think it's pretty clear that they've passed MSFT in cash, at least that's what I said about a week ago. They arn't a few billion apart, they were less than 2 billion apart and at the rate things were going they should have crossed sometime in July. Don't expect a buy-back. Certainly would be stupid to waste any money on something like buying Yahoo, so that's 100% won't happen. I expect to see Apple cross 30 billion in cash before you hear any plans for the money other than they need it to fund large purchases for product builds. (same ole, same old) Still, what we need to bank on is the new products mid-September and what they will do with their own chip maker recent purchase. If they get back to trying to do something with the chips, that the other clones(Dell, HP) can't do, then we'll see a move beyond 10% market share. Cash? More than MSFT. Does it matter? Not really, because they aren't dumb enough to waste it on Yahoo or anything down that dead-end.... I think it’s pretty clear that they’ve passed MSFT in cash, at least that’s what I said about a week ago.
They arn’t a few billion apart, they were less than 2 billion apart and at the rate things were going they should have crossed sometime in July.

Don’t expect a buy-back.
Certainly would be stupid to waste any money on something like buying Yahoo, so that’s 100% won’t happen.
I expect to see Apple cross 30 billion in cash before you hear any plans for the money other than they need it to fund large purchases for product builds. (same ole, same old)

Still, what we need to bank on is the new products mid-September and what they will do with their own chip maker recent purchase. If they get back to trying to do something with the chips, that the other clones(Dell, HP) can’t do, then we’ll see a move beyond 10% market share.

Cash?

More than MSFT.

Does it matter?

Not really, because they aren’t dumb enough to waste it on Yahoo or anything down that dead-end….

]]> Comment on Small story about why the iPhone is great by sleepygeek http://applelot.org/2008/08/07/small-story-about-why-the-iphone-is-great/#comment-590 sleepygeek Thu, 07 Aug 2008 16:08:00 +0000 http://applelot.org/?p=155#comment-590 I live in the countryside near a crossroads, and several people a week come to the door asking the most impossible questions like "do you know where Steve Brown is". I usually say "no idea, but my phone can probably help". In seconds they are seeing an aerial photo: "here's us at the blue pin, and here's Steve Brown's house at the red pin, and here's the directions to get there". They mostly have barely heard of an iPhone, but yes, they ALL say, I must get one of those. I live in the countryside near a crossroads, and several people a week come to the door asking the most impossible questions like “do you know where Steve Brown is”. I usually say “no idea, but my phone can probably help”. In seconds they are seeing an aerial photo: “here’s us at the blue pin, and here’s Steve Brown’s house at the red pin, and here’s the directions to get there”. They mostly have barely heard of an iPhone, but yes, they ALL say, I must get one of those.

]]> Comment on SJ’s email to employees re MobileMe - what does it mean? by Apple CEO Steve Jobs Administers Executive Justice over MobileMe Blunder : Investor in the Wilderness http://applelot.org/2008/08/05/sjs-email-to-employees-re-mobileme-what-does-it-mean/#comment-588 Apple CEO Steve Jobs Administers Executive Justice over MobileMe Blunder : Investor in the Wilderness Tue, 05 Aug 2008 17:53:51 +0000 http://applelot.org/?p=152#comment-588 [...] is a reprint from Applelot.org, with permission from the author, [...] ... MORE ... is a reprint from Applelot.org, with permission from the author, ... MORE ...

]]> Comment on SJ’s email to employees re MobileMe - what does it mean? by techstock2000 http://applelot.org/2008/08/05/sjs-email-to-employees-re-mobileme-what-does-it-mean/#comment-587 techstock2000 Tue, 05 Aug 2008 17:50:36 +0000 http://applelot.org/?p=152#comment-587 I agree, Scout. The infrastructure and software needed for a project like MobileMe is very complex, and perhaps there was a bit of hubris on Apple's part to believe that they could get it right quickly - even though they have entered complex new fields with great success before. I'm not sure that AT&T would have been helpful, however. I don't think of them either as innovative or as having bulletproof systems. I agree, Scout. The infrastructure and software needed for a project like MobileMe is very complex, and perhaps there was a bit of hubris on Apple’s part to believe that they could get it right quickly - even though they have entered complex new fields with great success before.

I’m not sure that AT&T would have been helpful, however. I don’t think of them either as innovative or as having bulletproof systems.

]]> Comment on SJ’s email to employees re MobileMe - what does it mean? by Scout http://applelot.org/2008/08/05/sjs-email-to-employees-re-mobileme-what-does-it-mean/#comment-586 Scout Tue, 05 Aug 2008 17:49:39 +0000 http://applelot.org/?p=152#comment-586 I think this shows more than anything that wireless is a complex business and that even though Apple has done an amazing job entering the business, occasionally they show their inexperience. I just wonder where the heck AT&T was at in the process. I think this shows more than anything that wireless is a complex business and that even though Apple has done an amazing job entering the business, occasionally they show their inexperience. I just wonder where the heck AT&T was at in the process.

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